IS the NDP environmentally responsible

Liam Reid writing in The Irish Times raised some questions about the environmental aspirations of the NDP The Government is keen to portray the new National Development Plan as a paragon of environmental responsibility. Addressing climate change was a "cornerstone" of the plan, Minister for the Environment Dick Roche was keen to stress to journalists.
Climate change does merit its own section in the plan, which also speaks about the need for a "holistic" approach to the problem, which included an important role for individuals. However, judging by the 48 cars parked in the upper yard of Dublin Castle at the launch of the plan - many of them gas-guzzling ministerial State cars - the concept of individual responsibility on climate change is one which has yet to make an impact on many junior and senior Ministers.
When briefing journalists, however, Mr Roche said climate change was now at the centre of the Government agenda, and the plan would produce real reductions in emissions.
He dismissed critics of Government as "dissembling" when they claimed the Government was not doing enough to combat climate change.
Whatever Mr Roche might say, the harsh fact is that the commitments contained in the plan will merely have the country treading water in terms of the serious emissions reductions that will have to be made over the next 13 years.
The main reason for this is that all of the measures included in the plan have already been taken into account in Government calculations of predicted greenhouse gas emission levels between now and 2012, which are modest to say the least.
The Government's own calculations show they make only a small dent in the growing levels of emissions from the Ireland. In fact the principle contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the plan is to pay other less developed countries to reduce theirs. And while this is relatively cheap in the short term, it is storing up considerable trouble in the long term.
One of the main elements highlighted in the plan as contributing to greenhouse gas reductions is what the Government describes as an unprecedented investment of €13 billion in public transport. It will see people switch from cars to public transport, thus reducing the amount of fossil fuels consumed.
A second element is the environmental benefits of the national spatial strategy. Balanced regional development will mean less travel for many people because they will live closer to their places of work, and facilities such as education, leisure and shopping.
A third element in the plan relates to the €270 million investment commitment in renewable energy. In one of the most oil and gas-dependent economies in
the world, it will increase the amount of electricity generated from wind, biomass and other sustainable sources. These measures are all commendable in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However they make but a small dent. And they have already been included in the Government's estimates and commitments on climate change.
At best they will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by less than one million tonnes, at a time when the reduction required under the Kyoto agreement is closer to seven million tonnes. For example, the spatial strategy element will reduce emissions by just 50,000 tonnes, according to the Department of the Environment's own projections.
The main measure contained in the plan for greenhouse gas reductions is the carbon fund. This €270 million fund, announced in last month's budget, will enable the Government to buy carbon "credits" to make up for a predicted shortfall on emission reductions within Ireland.
Under the international scheme, the credits are purchased through investing in carbon dioxide emission reductions in developing countries. In short, the Government will purchase 3.6 million tonnes a year between 2008 and 2012 in order to meet its Kyoto commitments. It is the single biggest element in the Government's climate change strategy. But the main problem with this is that the cost of meeting future commitments could be much higher.
The reason is two-fold. The successor to Kyoto, which the Government is committed to being part, will require Ireland to reduce its emissions by up to 20 per cent below 1990 levels. It would require a real reduction of up to 30 million tonnes a year, five times the current shortfall in reaching the Kyoto target.
Secondly, the cost of carbon credits is likely to rise significantly above the current estimated cost of €15 a tonne, as making reductions become more difficult not only in Ireland but also in developing countries.
The absence of serious emission reduction policies such as carbon taxes, stringent energy requirements for new homes, means that ultimately the taxpayer could be facing an annual bill similar in size to interest payments on the national debt.

Full text of the National Development Plan 2007-2013 "TRANSFORMING IRELAND A Better Quality of Life for All".

The full text of the NDP can be viewed at:

http://www.ndp.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=1904&mn=&nID=&UserLang=EN&StartDate=1+January+2007

Social & Affordable Housing to be a priority in the NDP

Do you believe it?

Mr. Noel Ahern T.D., Minister for Housing & Urban Renewal today (23 January 07) announced an investment programme of some €18 billion in Housing over the next seven years.

Speaking at the launch of the Social Infrastructure Priority of the NDP, the Minister said:

"An estimated 140,000 new households will have their accommodation needs met over the coming seven years. To achieve this, ambitious targets of 60,000 new units of social housing have been set and it is estimated that some 40,000 affordable homes will also be provided over the NDP period. Other households will benefit from the Rental Accommodation Scheme, under contractual arrangements with landlords for existing properties transferring from rent supplement, as well as from accommodation made available through vacancies normally arising in social housing and other social housing measures."

The investment of €18 billion, rising to €21 billion when rent allowance expenditure is taken into account, builds on the commitments agreed in Towards 2016. It is framed against the backdrop of the NESC report on Housing, acknowledging the recommendation of that report to expand the supply while maintaining an important focus on the quality of housing.

The Minister added:

"The Housing Policy Framework, launched at the end of 2005, set the building of sustainable communities as its guiding principle for our investment and this is reflected in the NDP. A new housing policy statement, due to be published in February, will provide greater detail on the actions required if the goals in the Framework document are to be achieved. The key objective in all of this is to build sustainable communities and to use resources to meet individual needs in a manner that facilitates personal choice and autonomy."

The Minister concluded:

"We are setting out a challenging but exciting vision for housing. One that is necessary to meet the needs of our growing population and to ensure that those who have affordability problems, or special housing needs, can be offered a greater range of choices to improve their position. Invariably with the launch of a seven year National Development Plan, there is a welter of statistical references in terms of investment figures, targets and outputs. But when the enormous sums of money that have been provided under the Housing Programme of this NDP are broken down, what we are about is providing homes. We will be using this investment wisely to provide choice and new opportunities for the maximum number of households."

Not published yet, but there are already complaints about the cost of the new NDP

Cliff taylor in the Sunday Business Post writes:

A major government economic plan, to be published next week, will outline proposals to spend more than €175 billion over the next seven years.

The money will be spent on roads, public transport, research, training and a range of social programmes. Among the key commitments will be 100,000 new social and affordable homes and 50,000 new childcare places.

Minister for Finance Brian Cowen will outline the National Development Plan (NDP) 2007-2013 on Tuesday, January 23, in the most far ranging economic programme ever outlined by an Irish government.

The largest single amount of money - likely to exceed €50 billion - will go towards economic infrastructure such as roads and public transport, energy and broadband.

Further significant amounts will be spent on enterprise and science, training and social infrastructure, including social and affordable houses and new prisons and courthouses.

Previous programmes have only dealt with investment spending, but for the first time the new NDP will include a seven-year programme for day-to-day spending in key social areas such as childcare services, support for older people and the disabled and programmes to promote immigrant integration.

These will be required to improve services and deal with a population that is likely to rise to more than five million over the next decade. The government hopes the plan, coming months before the election, will give the coalition an extra boost before polling day.

Total state investment spending under the programme will come to more than €75 billion.

Together with substantial investment by state bodies such as the ESB and the private sector and some €50 billion in day-to-day spending on total programmes, this will bring total spending on all elements of the plan to more than €175 billion, outlining significant amounts of the state spending programme for the next seven years. This represents a major departure from the current method of allocating money on a year-to-year basis in each budget.

The plan will say that funding the programme will depend on a continuation of strong economic growth, which it expects will run at 4 per cent plus on average each year.

As well as carrying through the €34 billion Transport 21 plan published last year, the government will present the document as addressing key ‘‘quality-of-life’’ issues.

It will promise to accelerate investment in schools, particularly in fast-growing areas where there is a shortage of places and to tackle youth disadvantage.

For the elderly it will outline a multi-year programme to increase supports for those staying at home as well as investing in nursing home facilities. The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has found that investments under previous plans have generated a strong return.

However, the government is choosing to ignore advice from the ESRI that it should cut back on investment spending over the next couple of years, particularly in areas such as social housing, as it could get better value when growth rates cool.

Among the key targets of the plan will be a major training programme for those in work overseen by FAS and heavy investment in third level education facilities.