THE Government's targets for tackling global warming are impossible to achieve without huge increases in fuel prices and severe damage to the economy, a new study published by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) concludes.
The Government target is to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gas carbon dioxide by 3pc a year to 2012.
"It is not clear where this target comes from," says Richard Tol, a researches with the ESRI. "It can only be achieved by drastic measures, such as a rapid reduction in the numbers of people or cattle."
He said a serious attempt to achieve such a 15pc reduction in the space of just five years would require the price of petrol to rise above €2 a litre and a threefold increase in the cost of electricity.
The resulting fall in demand would knock more than 2pc off economic growth by 2012, the research calculates.
Problem
"The Irish economy is currently projected to grow by 2.9pc. With climate policy this fall to 2.5-2.6pc; a reduction of one tenth to one fifth -- provided emission reduction is announced well in advance," the analysis says.
"In fact, the problem is more severe than this. In a five-year period, emissions are largely reduced on the demand side. This would imply that either one half of the population emigrates, or the average resident uses 50pc less energy.
"One would have to give up the television, the dishwasher, the washing machine and the refrigerator, and refrain from travelling by car four days a week," the report states.
Mr Tol said our models cannot find a way to get this reduction by 2012. "If one put the burden on agriculture, half the cattle in the country would have to be culled," he said.
"If it were industry, two-fifths of production would have to move overseas. And that would do nothing for global emissions -- just moving dairy farming or industry out of Ireland."
He said the problem is that nothing major can be done about the main sources of greenhouse gases over five, or even 10 years. There can be little change in the stock of power stations in five years, the housing stock will largely be the same as now, and public transport will increase marginally.
"The emission reduction target of the Irish Government can only be met by draconian measures. It would therefore be better abandoned," the analysis concludes.
The issue is serious because the Irish taxpayer could end up paying large sums to "buy" carbon if Ireland does not meet targets agreed at EU and international level.
Mr Tol favours a carbon tax which would rise slowly over time on emissions which are not covered by EU rules.
Brendan Keenan
Irish Independent
www.buckplanning.ie
Showing posts with label emissions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label emissions. Show all posts
Friday, 21 December 2007
Tuesday, 6 February 2007
EPA finds surge in levels of greenhouse emissions
Liam Reid in The Irish Times covers this story:
Greenhouse gas emission levels in Ireland have risen steeply for the first time in four years, a report to be published next week will show.
The records, to be released by the Environmental Protection Agency, are expected to reveal that greenhouse gas emissions have surged by more than one million tonnes, to a figure in the region of 70 million tonnes a year.
The rise, believed to be close to 2 per cent, is expected to be the largest since 2001, and will leave Ireland with one of the highest rates of emissions per head of population in the world.
It will see emissions levels at over 25 per cent above 1990 levels, 12 percentage points higher than the Kyoto target.
The report, which is being finalised this week, follows last Friday's publication of an international report on climate change, which warned of temperature rises of up to 6 degrees by the end of the century due to global warming caused by greenhouse gases.
Last Friday's report, published in Paris by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, warned of mass displacement, food and water shortages because of the impact of global warming.
The figures in next week's EPA report will contradict previous Government claims that emissions growth had been totally separated from economic growth.
However, last night the Department of the Environment said the increase was expected, and that the Government would meet its Kyoto commitment through a series of measures, including the purchase of carbon credits to offset domestic emissions.
Next week's report will show that the rises in certain sectors are significantly higher than had been predicted in Government reports.
The rate of increase, if it continues, could also see the State facing a carbon credits bill in excess of the €270 million that has already been set aside by the Government to make up for the shortfall in reaching the Kyoto target.
The EPA report will show that the transport and electricity generation sectors have been the main sources of the latest increase, and that the Government's strategy to cut emissions has had only a modest impact.
The latest report, which is for 2005, is likely to show that the latest rise has been driven by a huge increase in emissions from the transport sector, which grew by about 8 per cent. This is significantly higher than the modest 2 per cent rise for transport predicted in the Government's own emissions trading report of last March.
The slowdown in emissions growth from electricity generation has also been reversed, the report will show, with a steep rise caused mainly by two new peat-fired stations. The large increases in transport and energy have been offset to only a modest extent by decreases in emissions from agriculture and an increase in renewable energy sources.
It will leave the rate of emissions per head of population in Ireland among the highest in the world, exceeded only by the United States and Luxembourg.
It will show that emissions are now rising faster than previous estimates, and that the introduction of emissions trading in 2005 had only a small impact on curbing emissions levels.
Last night a spokesman for the Department of the Environment played down the significance of next week's report, saying it was "no surprise" to the Department as the increases from energy and transport were already flagged in a report by Sustainable Energy Ireland last year.
He said figures published by the Department last year also predicted emissions rates of up to 29 per cent above 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012 if no action was taken.
"However we will cut this down to 13 per cent," the spokesman said, through a combination of emissions trading, a revised climate change strategy to be published in the coming months, and the purchase of carbon credits, announced in last December's Budget.
Greenhouse gas emission levels in Ireland have risen steeply for the first time in four years, a report to be published next week will show.
The records, to be released by the Environmental Protection Agency, are expected to reveal that greenhouse gas emissions have surged by more than one million tonnes, to a figure in the region of 70 million tonnes a year.
The rise, believed to be close to 2 per cent, is expected to be the largest since 2001, and will leave Ireland with one of the highest rates of emissions per head of population in the world.
It will see emissions levels at over 25 per cent above 1990 levels, 12 percentage points higher than the Kyoto target.
The report, which is being finalised this week, follows last Friday's publication of an international report on climate change, which warned of temperature rises of up to 6 degrees by the end of the century due to global warming caused by greenhouse gases.
Last Friday's report, published in Paris by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, warned of mass displacement, food and water shortages because of the impact of global warming.
The figures in next week's EPA report will contradict previous Government claims that emissions growth had been totally separated from economic growth.
However, last night the Department of the Environment said the increase was expected, and that the Government would meet its Kyoto commitment through a series of measures, including the purchase of carbon credits to offset domestic emissions.
Next week's report will show that the rises in certain sectors are significantly higher than had been predicted in Government reports.
The rate of increase, if it continues, could also see the State facing a carbon credits bill in excess of the €270 million that has already been set aside by the Government to make up for the shortfall in reaching the Kyoto target.
The EPA report will show that the transport and electricity generation sectors have been the main sources of the latest increase, and that the Government's strategy to cut emissions has had only a modest impact.
The latest report, which is for 2005, is likely to show that the latest rise has been driven by a huge increase in emissions from the transport sector, which grew by about 8 per cent. This is significantly higher than the modest 2 per cent rise for transport predicted in the Government's own emissions trading report of last March.
The slowdown in emissions growth from electricity generation has also been reversed, the report will show, with a steep rise caused mainly by two new peat-fired stations. The large increases in transport and energy have been offset to only a modest extent by decreases in emissions from agriculture and an increase in renewable energy sources.
It will leave the rate of emissions per head of population in Ireland among the highest in the world, exceeded only by the United States and Luxembourg.
It will show that emissions are now rising faster than previous estimates, and that the introduction of emissions trading in 2005 had only a small impact on curbing emissions levels.
Last night a spokesman for the Department of the Environment played down the significance of next week's report, saying it was "no surprise" to the Department as the increases from energy and transport were already flagged in a report by Sustainable Energy Ireland last year.
He said figures published by the Department last year also predicted emissions rates of up to 29 per cent above 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012 if no action was taken.
"However we will cut this down to 13 per cent," the spokesman said, through a combination of emissions trading, a revised climate change strategy to be published in the coming months, and the purchase of carbon credits, announced in last December's Budget.
Friday, 8 December 2006
Irish car taxes to be more CO2 - weighted
Irish finance minister Brian Cowen has proposed linking annual car taxes more closely to CO2 emissions from 2008 as part of his 2007 budget announcement on Wednesday. Under the proposals, now out for consultation, mandatory car emission labelling would also be introduced. Budget allocations include E270m to a carbon fund to buy credits through the Kyoto Ireland
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