Known unknowns: how many houses are we really building?

Ten years on from the crash and we still don’t have an accurate measure of housing output. The one metric that might give us an understanding of the scale of the current crisis and how to remedy it is essentially an unknown.Traditionally, the Department of Housing uses electricity connections as a proxy for counting new builds, but this method has proved entirely unreliable.  This is because new connections can be triggered by formerly vacant units – think of the myriad of ghost estates left over from the boom – coming back on stream. Even so, a figure of 19,300 completions for 2017, based on this questionable method, has been adopted.

Read the full article @ The Irish Times

Mayor blasts council over housing

DUBLIN city council is facing a call that it be stripped of its social house-building powers after new figures showed that it has built fewer than 1,000 homes in five years.

Despite the capital city being the epicentre of unprecedented housing demand, the local authority charged with alleviating the crisis has singularly failed, a Fianna Fail backbencher said last night.

Figures prepared by Dublin city council and seen by the Irish Independent reveal that the local authority built only 189 new units in the whole of last year for those on the housing list. At the same time it provided only 52 senior citizen units -- and was forced to buy 216 houses and apartments from private developers. In the five years since 2002, only 914 council homes have been built by the local authority under its social housing responsibilities.

At the same time there remain more than 5,000 on the city housing list, with thousands more not bothering even to register.

Last night former Dublin Mayor Michael Mulcahy said he believed the time had come to take house-building powers away from the city council and to vest them in the new Junior Minister for Housing, Batt O'Keeffe. "The figures revealed by the city manager are a disgrace," Mr Mulcahy said. "One developer could provide this level of housing with his eyes closed. Dublin city council has simply failed to put in place a comprehensive house building programme as it is obliged to do under the Housing Acts.

"The thousands on the housing list are just the tip of the iceberg," he added. "Thousands more would come on if they had any realistic prospect of accommodation. I personally know of cases such as eight people living in a two-bedroom house where a mother and two children will have been years on the list."

Irish Independent

Some views on the housing boom of interest to planners

Much has been said of late about the level of housing development in Ireland, with some concerns being expressed as to whether Ireland’s housing market is oversupplied.

There is no doubt that Ireland has enjoyed a very buoyant period of expansion in recent years, significantly ahead of our European counterparts.

In the past decade alone, we have effectively increased our housing stock by over 40 per cent, which is a significant achievement.

The latest available data shows that the housing stock in Ireland has increased to 1.8 million units. This trend peaked in 2006when construction was completed on over 93,000 residential units, equivalent to building almost 22 houses per thousand of our population.

By contrast, completion levels in mainland Europe ranged from about three to five houses per thousand of the population.

With such a significant uplift in housing stock, it is perhaps not surprising that concerns are being raised about whether we have oversupplied our housing market.

To address this issue, it is important that we view the housing stock level within the context of the population data.

At the time of Census 2006, Ireland had achieved a housing supply of 417 houses per thousand of our population. This is a significant improvement on the position at the start of the period of expansion, when it was just over 334 houses per thousand of the population.

Despite the significant increase in this period, Ireland’s housing stock per capita is still below that of most of our European counterparts, where the average housing stock per thousand of the population stood at 460 per thousand of the population at the end of 2005.

For comparison purposes, it is worth noting that established economies in mainland Europe such as Germany and France would have a housing supply of 461 and 504 units per thousand of the population.

Interestingly, Spain has a housing stock of 522 units per thousand of their population, while developing economies such as Poland and Slovakia would have a much lower housing stock, of 338 and 361 respectively.

Clearly, this analysis suggests that within the context of the wider European market, the Irish housing market is certainly not oversupplied. However, it is worth mentioning that within Ireland, the supply of property differs considerably between different counties.

Some counties, particularly those with a stronger tourist trade, have a higher stock level per capita while others, and perhaps in particular Dublin, have a much lower stock level.

This trend of lower housing density is most prevalent in the eastern corridor and regional centres. The average housing density level in the greater Dublin area, which includes Kildare, Wicklow and Meath, stood at 403 units per thousand of the population, while surrounding counties such as Carlow and Kilkenny also have lower density levels of 400 and 392 units respectively.

The average stock per thousand of the population in Dublin at the time of the last census was 403. Unsurprisingly, the density levels were strongest in the Dublin City Council area at 441 per thousand of population, with lower levels in Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown, Fingal and South Dublin at 399, 376 and 354 respectively.

Such low stock levels suggest that the Dublin housing market is still undersupplied, a factor which will underwrite the performance of property prices in this location in the future.

This county analysis of housing stock also reveals a strong correlation between high housing stock and high vacancy rates in certain counties, while counties on the eastern corridor and the major regional centres display lower housing density levels and lower vacancy rates. This is perhaps best illustrated in South Dublin, where the vacancy rate is only 6.2 per cent.

In conclusion, it would appear that concerns about the housing supply levels in Ireland are largely unfounded - indeed, one could go so far as to say that there are still locations within the country that are significantly undersupplied.

This and the projected reduction in the supply of residential units delivered to the market this year suggest that we may see a more disparate housing market in the future, with above trend price inflation being achieved in locations which have not yet achieved equilibrium in their housing stock.

For the country as a whole, it is fair to say that we have gone a long way to reduce this historical imbalance between demand and supply, a commendable achievement in a relatively short period of time.

Furthermore, the market has now clearly taken a more conservative view as regards the delivery of units, a factor which will underwrite the performance of the market in the medium term. Both of these factors bode well for the future price performance of the housing market, which is positive news for the economy overall.

Marian Finnegan is chief economist with the Sherry FitzGerald Group
Sunday Business Post

Concern at Annabella housing decision

MAJOR concern has been expressed by residents in Mallow that a large development in the town could set a negative precendent for future plans. The decision by An Bord Pleanala to grant permission for 104 residential units at
Annabella Park, despite objections from residents, has led town councillors to call for more authority in planning decisions.
Meanwhile, planning appeals ahave been lodge with An Bord regarding Castlelands Construction plans for 422 dwelling, also in Annabella.
IN Annabella Park, Canonbridge Ltd have been granted planning permission to build 104 dwellings, including three apartment blocks containing 26 apartments and a children’s play area.
The major concern voiced by residents is that the development is too big for the current infrastructure. A key part of the appeal was in relation to the inadequacy of the road network.
Mayor of Mallow Jerry Mullaly has voiced his deep concern about the road network in the area.
“I thought that there would be no further development until the roads were improved. This development will make the traffic situation worse,” said Mayor Mullally.
The frustration at the Canonbridge development has now escalated in the light of planning being sought for 30 apartments in Kennell Hill, Mallow.
Cllr Sean Sherlock voiced outrage at last Tuesday’s town council meeting that planning is being sought to knock a dwelling house at Springwood, and construct 30 apartments.
“A monstrosity like this is incongruous to a well established area of Mallow,’ said Cllr Sherlock.
Louise McCarthy
© The Corkman

Affordable home . . . if you have a salary of €67,000

Scheme 'no advantage' for first-time buyers

SINGLE people applying to purchase 'affordable' homes in west Dublin will have to have a salary of at least €67,000 to qualify.

Despite the three-bedroom homes being offered for sale at a discount to the market price, applicants will have to earn twice the average industrial wage just to meet mortgage repayments.

The houses, which are for sale in a development called Phibblestown Wood in Ongar, are priced from €310,000 to €345,000. Located close to Blanchardstown shopping centre, most have large back gardens and are suitable for families.

Affordable homes are sold in new estates at a discount to the market price for people on lower incomes.

But the high income threshold required to purchase them shows the difficulty that many first-time buyers have when it comes to buying a home.

Yesterday, the Affordable Homes Partnership, a state agency charged with delivering affordable homes, confirmed that single people would need to earn about €67,000 to qualify.

"These are large three-bedroom family homes, and if a single person does want to apply they would have to earn about €67,000," a spokesperson said.

Independent TD for Kildare, Catherine Murphy, said yesterday she could not see how the houses were affordable, given that homes available from the private sector in commuter belts could be purchased for similar amounts without the discount.

"To be honest, I fail to see how these homes can be seen as affordable considering that private sector properties of similar floorspace and bedroom compliment can be bought for the same price or less in commuter areas," she said.

Problems

"The average industrial wage is about €32,000 meaning that even joint-applicants earning the average industrial wage could not afford these houses," she added.

Since 2005 when the Affordable Homes Partnership (AHP) was established, it has delivered 628 new homes across the country, most of which are in the Greater Dublin Area where prices are highest and first-time buyers face the greatest affordability problems.

The Government plans to deliver €18bn worth of housing over the course of the National Development Plan, and the AHP has recently purchased 500 new homes on the open market in Dublin, Kildare, Meath and Wicklow where apartments are likely to start at €200,000.

Paul Melia
irish Independent

Houses built on dump

Paul Melia in the Irish Indo' writes of how a mother blames family's illnesses on poisons left under home by developer
NEW council houses have been built on a site which was used for illegal dumping.
And samples taken from the back garden of one house show that traces of dangerous chemicals remain in the soil.
Since moving in last year Mary Joyce claims her children - Ellen (9), Bernard (20), James (8) and John (16) - have been constantly sick.
She is worried that dangerous chemicals could be in her back garden, and wants a full investigation to be carried out.
"Since I came up here it's nothing but sore throats and sickness. The colour of my kids is divine white," she said.
Her two youngest children, she says, had good health in their old home in Ballymun flats at Balcurris Lane. Now they suffer from stomach aches, diarrhoea and continuous sores.
Residents believe more could be present throughout the site.
Yesterday Green Party leader Trevor Sargent said he believed the site was a dump that had been covered over and called for a full public inquiry.
The houses on Balbutcher Lane, off the St Margaret's Road in north Dublin, were built as part of the €1bn Ballymun regeneration project, were completed last year.
More than 90 homes are in the development, which were built at a cost of €15m.
A sample taken from Mary Joyce's house shows that traces of phenols and thiocyanate are present in the soil.
These substances can be found in landfills and waste water. They are used in the production of herbicides and insecticides and in industrial processes.
Exposure can cause respiratory irritation, headaches and other health difficulties.
One forensic scientist said the phenols and thiocyanate could be 'witnesses' to serious contamination as they could move throughout a site and might be found in greater quantities elsewhere.
They suggested a full site investigation be carried out to ensure that residents health was not at risk.
Yesterday Ballymun Regeneration Ltd - an arm of Dublin City Council charged with redeveloping the north Dublin suburb - confirmed that the site on which the houses were built was used as an illegal dump.
Abandoned cars had to be removed before building work commenced but the council rejected allegations that there was a health risk to residents.
"Ballymun Regeneration is satisfied that there is no contamination on the site of Carton Court that could cause any risk to health," a statement said.
"The site in question was never a landfill site although it had been used for fly tipping and abandoned cars had to be removed before any development took place."
It said a specialist company had been commissioned to carry out site investigations and these showed no evidence of contamination.
It added that testing of one soil sample could not be considered representative of the whole area, and that it was satisfied there was no risk to human health.
But yesterday Green Party leader Trevor Sargent said he believed that waste discovered on the site had been covered over, and that the site had been a dump which was simply covered over.
He called for a series of independent tests and a full public inquiry.

Planning for housing in Budget 2006

Budget Estimates Disappointing for People on Housing Waiting Lists, says Threshold Chairperson

Threshold Chairperson, Aideen Hayden, has expressed concern that the Government's budget estimates announced today do not make sufficient provision to address the housing crisis. Funding for local authority and voluntary housing will increase by just €107 million to €1.27 billion in 2007, roughly a 10% increase. When housing inflation and land costs are taken into account, this figure probably represents a 'holding position'.

The Government's own think tank, the National Economic and Social Council (NESC), describes the current housing crisis as "a major national challenge which bears comparison with other great challenges that Ireland has faced and met in the past half century." NESC recommended in 2004 that an additional 73,000 houses for people in need be provided between 2005 and 2012, to bring the total stock to 200,000 dwellings. The figure of 200,000 units was based on projected increases in the Irish population and the limited responses to existing social housing needs. NESC also pointed out that an estimated capital investment of €1.4 billion a year would be required to achieve a net increase of 73,000 units.

But with almost 44,000 households currently on waiting lists, Threshold believes that the 2007 budget estimates for social housing do not go far enough. Today's announcement of €1.27 billion falls short of the NESC estimate of €1.4 billion and will not deliver the 10,000 houses needed to address the housing crisis in 2007. With estimates of €1 billion in 2005, the Department of Environment, Heritage and Local Government delivered only 6,477 social houses; so the maximum number of houses that could be delivered with €1.27 billion in 2007 is about 8,000 units. The budget estimate for social housing flies in the face of NESC's advice and at best represents a standstill.

Threshold welcomed the commitment in the social partnership deal 'Towards 2016' to provide 27,000 new social housing units by 2009 as a positive step towards meeting the NESC target (although 1,000 of these units are to be in the rented sector). Clearly the targets set out in Towards 2016 are also not going to be met on the basis of the estimates furnished. This represents a disappointing departure on a commitment so recently signed off.